Carlos T.Estrada Arzamendi

The spillover effects of affordable housing developments on neighbors' political participation

with Robert Ainsworth and Emanuel Garcia Munoz

This paper examines the impacts of Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) developments on political participation in surrounding neighborhoods. Using voter file data from North Carolina and a near-far ring design, we compare outcomes over time for people who lived close to an LIHTC project in the election before it was finished. We find that LIHTC developments lead to a steady decrease in both registration and turnout among these nearby residents, with each falling by about 0.2 percentage points per post-completion general election. Most of the fall in registration reflects people being purged from the voter rolls due to sustained inactivity, not death, felony conviction, or moving away. A potential explanation is that voting behavior is influenced by peer effects and that an LIHTC development provides an influx of residents with low electoral engagement.